Plotting confidence intervals for Maximum Likelihood Estimate - python

I am trying to write code to produce confidence intervals for the number of different books in a library (as well as produce an informative plot).
My cousin is at elementary school and every week is given a book by his teacher. He then reads it and returns it in time to get another one the next week. After a while we started noticing that he was getting books he had read before and this became gradually more common over time.
Say the true number of books in the library is N and the teacher picks one uniformly at random (with replacement) to give to you each week. If at week t the number of occasions on which you have received a book you have read is x, then I can produce a maximum likelihood estimate for the number of books in the library following https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/615464/how-many-books-are-in-a-library .
Example: Consider a library with five books A, B, C, D, and E. If you receive books [A, B, A, C, B, B, D] in seven successive weeks, then the value for x (the number of duplicates) will be [0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3] after each of those weeks, meaning after seven weeks, you have received a book you have already read on three occasions.
To visualise the likelihood function (assuming I have understood what one is correctly) I have written the following code which I believe plots the likelihood function. The maximum is around 135 which is indeed the maximum likelihood estimate according to the MSE link above.
from __future__ import division
import random
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
#N is the true number of books. t is the number of weeks.unk is the true number of repeats found
t = 30
unk = 3
def numberrepeats(N, t):
return t - len(set([random.randint(0,N) for i in xrange(t)]))
iters = 1000
ydata = []
for N in xrange(10,500):
sampledunk = [numberrepeats(N,t) for i in xrange(iters)].count(unk)
ydata.append(sampledunk/iters)
print "MLE is", np.argmax(ydata)
xdata = range(10, 500)
print len(xdata), len(ydata)
plt.plot(xdata,ydata)
plt.show()
The output looks like
My questions are these:
Is there an easy way to get a 95% confidence interval and plot it on the diagram?
How can you superimpose a smoothed curve over the plot?
Is there a better way my code should have been written? It isn't very elegant and is also quite slow.
Finding the 95% confidence interval means finding the range of the x axis so that 95% of the time the empirical maximum likelihood estimate we get by sampling (which should theoretically be 135 in this example) will fall within it. The answer #mbatchkarov has given does not currently do this correctly.
There is now a mathematical answer at https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/656101/how-to-find-a-confidence-interval-for-a-maximum-likelihood-estimate .

Looks like you're ok on the first part, so I'll tackle your second and third points.
There are plenty of ways to fit smooth curves, with scipy.interpolate and splines, or with scipy.optimize.curve_fit. Personally, I prefer curve_fit, because you can supply your own function and let it fit the parameters for you.
Alternatively, if you don't want to learn a parametric function, you could do simple rolling-window smoothing with numpy.convolve.
As for code quality: you're not taking advantage of numpy's speed, because you're doing things in pure python. I would write your (existing) code like this:
from __future__ import division
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# N is the true number of books.
# t is the number of weeks.
# unk is the true number of repeats found
t = 30
unk = 3
def numberrepeats(N, t, iters):
rand = np.random.randint(0, N, size=(t, iters))
return t - np.array([len(set(r)) for r in rand])
iters = 1000
ydata = np.empty(500-10)
for N in xrange(10,500):
sampledunk = np.count_nonzero(numberrepeats(N,t,iters) == unk)
ydata[N-10] = sampledunk/iters
print "MLE is", np.argmax(ydata)
xdata = range(10, 500)
print len(xdata), len(ydata)
plt.plot(xdata,ydata)
plt.show()
It's probably possible to optimize this even more, but this change brings your code's runtime from ~30 seconds to ~2 seconds on my machine.

The a simple (numerical) way to get a confidence interval is simply to run your script many times, and see how much your estimate varies. You can use that standard deviation to calculate the confidence interval.
In the interest of time, another option is to run a bunch of trials at each value of N (I used 2000), and then use random subsampling of those trials to get an estimate of the estimator standard deviation. Basically, this involves selecting a subset of the trials, generating your likelihood curve using that subset, then finding the maximum of that curve to get your estimator. You do this over many subsets and this gives you a bunch of estimators, which you can use to find a confidence interval on your estimator. My full script is as follows:
import numpy as np
t = 30
k = 3
def trial(N):
return t - len(np.unique(np.random.randint(0, N, size=t)))
def trials(N, n_trials):
return np.asarray([trial(N) for i in xrange(n_trials)])
n_trials = 2000
Ns = np.arange(1, 501)
results = np.asarray([trials(N, n_trials=n_trials) for N in Ns])
def likelihood(results):
L = (results == 3).mean(-1)
# boxcar filtering
n = 10
L = np.convolve(L, np.ones(n) / float(n), mode='same')
return L
def max_likelihood_estimate(Ns, results):
i = np.argmax(likelihood(results))
return Ns[i]
def max_likelihood(Ns, results):
# calculate mean from all trials
mean = max_likelihood_estimate(Ns, results)
# randomly subsample results to estimate std
n_samples = 100
sample_frac = 0.25
estimates = np.zeros(n_samples)
for i in xrange(n_samples):
mask = np.random.uniform(size=results.shape[1]) < sample_frac
estimates[i] = max_likelihood_estimate(Ns, results[:,mask])
std = estimates.std()
sterr = std * np.sqrt(sample_frac) # is this mathematically sound?
ci = (mean - 1.96*sterr, mean + 1.96*sterr)
return mean, std, sterr, ci
mean, std, sterr, ci = max_likelihood(Ns, results)
print "Max likelihood estimate: ", mean
print "Max likelihood 95% ci: ", ci
There are two drawbacks to this method. One is that, since you're taking many subsamples from the same set of trials, your estimates are not independent. To limit the effect of this, I only used 25% of the results for each subset. Another drawback is that each subsample is only a fraction of your data, so estimates derived from these subsets will have more variance than estimates derived from running the full script many times. To account for this, I computed the standard error as the standard deviation divided by the square root of 4, since I had four times as much data in my full data set than in one of the subsamples. However, I'm not familiar enough with Monte Carlo theory to know if this is mathematically sound. Running my script a number of times did seem to indicate that my results were reasonable.
Lastly, I did use a boxcar filter on the likelihood curves to smooth them out a bit. Ideally, this should improve results, but even with the filtering there was still a considerable amount of variability in the results. When calculating the value for the overall estimator, I wasn't sure if it would be better compute one likelihood curve from all the results and use the max of that (this is what I ended up doing), or to use the mean of all the subset estimators. Using the mean of the subset estimators might be able to help cancel out some of the roughness in the curves that remains after filtering, but I'm not sure on this.

Here is an answer to your first question and a pointer to a solution for the second:
plot(xdata,ydata)
# calculate the cumulative distribution function
cdf = np.cumsum(ydata)/sum(ydata)
# get the left and right boundary of the interval that contains 95% of the probability mass
right=argmax(cdf>0.975)
left=argmax(cdf>0.025)
# indicate confidence interval with vertical lines
vlines(xdata[left], 0, ydata[left])
vlines(xdata[right], 0, ydata[right])
# hatch confidence interval
fill_between(xdata[left:right], ydata[left:right], facecolor='blue', alpha=0.5)
This produces the following figure:
I'll try to answer question 3 when I have more time :)

Related

Find bootstrapped confidence interval with bootstrapped library

So let's imagine I have an array of sample data which is normally distributed. What I want, is to compute the probability of another sample being less than -3 and provide a bootstrapped confidence interval for that probability. After doing some research, I found the bootstrapped python library which I want to use to find the CI.
So I have:
import numpy as np
import bootstrapped.bootstrap as bs
import bootstrapped.stats_functions as bs_stats
mu, sigma = 2.5, 4 # mean and standard deviation
samples = np.random.normal(mu, sigma, 1000)
bs.bootstrap(samples, stat_func= ???)
What should I write for stat_func ? I tried writing a lambda function to compute the probability of -3, but it did not work. I know how to compute the probability of a sample being less than -3, it's simply the CI which I am having a hard time dealing with.
I followed the example of stat_functions.mean from the bootstrapped package. Below it is wrapped in a 'factory' so that you can specify the level at which you want to calculate the frequency (sadly you cannot pass it as an optional argument to functions that bootstrap() is expecting). Basically prob_less_func_factory(level) returns a function that calculates the proportion of your sample that is less than that level. It can be used for matrices just like the example I followed.
def prob_less_func_factory(level = -3.0):
def prob_less_func(values, axis=1):
'''Returns the proportion of samples that are less than the 'level' of each row of a matrix'''
return np.mean(np.asmatrix(values)<level, axis=axis).A1
return prob_less_func
Now you pass it in like so
level = -3
bs_res = bs.bootstrap(samples, stat_func = prob_less_func_factory(level=level))
and the result I get (yours will be slightly different because samples is random) is
0.088 (0.06999999999999999, 0.105)
so the boostrap function estimated (well, calculated) the proportion of values in samples that are less than -3 to be 0.088 and the confidence interval around it is (0.06999999999999999, 0.105)
For checking we can calculate the theoretical value of one sample from your distribution being less than -3:
from scipy.stats import norm
print(f'Theoretical Prob(N(mean={mu},std={sigma})<{level}): {norm.cdf(level, loc=mu,scale =sigma)}')
and we get
Theoretical Prob(N(mean=2.5,std=4)<-3): 0.08456572235133569
so it all seems consistent consistent.

Understading hyperopt's TPE algorithm

I am illustrating hyperopt's TPE algorithm for my master project and cant seem to get the algorithm to converge. From what i understand from the original paper and youtube lecture the TPE algorithm works in the following steps:
(in the following, x=hyperparameters and y=loss)
Start by creating a search history of [x,y], say 10 points.
Sort the hyperparameters according to their loss and divide them into two sets using some quantile γ (γ = 0.5 means the sets will be equally sized)
Make a kernel density estimation for both the poor hyperparameter group (g(x)) and good hyperparameter group (l(x))
Good estimations will have low probability in g(x) and high probability in l(x), so we propose to evaluate the function at argmin(g(x)/l(x))
Evaluate (x,y) pair at the proposed point and repeat steps 2-5.
I have implemented this in python on the objective function f(x) = x^2, but the algorithm fails to converge to the minimum.
import numpy as np
import scipy as sp
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import gaussian_kde
def objective_func(x):
return x**2
def measure(x):
noise = np.random.randn(len(x))*0
return x**2+noise
def split_meassures(x_obs,y_obs,gamma=1/2):
#split x and y observations into two sets and return a seperation threshold (y_star)
size = int(len(x_obs)//(1/gamma))
l = {'x':x_obs[:size],'y':y_obs[:size]}
g = {'x':x_obs[size:],'y':y_obs[size:]}
y_star = (l['y'][-1]+g['y'][0])/2
return l,g,y_star
#sample objective function values for ilustration
x_obj = np.linspace(-5,5,10000)
y_obj = objective_func(x_obj)
#start by sampling a parameter search history
x_obs = np.linspace(-5,5,10)
y_obs = measure(x_obs)
nr_iterations = 100
for i in range(nr_iterations):
#sort observations according to loss
sort_idx = y_obs.argsort()
x_obs,y_obs = x_obs[sort_idx],y_obs[sort_idx]
#split sorted observations in two groups (l and g)
l,g,y_star = split_meassures(x_obs,y_obs)
#aproximate distributions for both groups using kernel density estimation
kde_l = gaussian_kde(l['x']).evaluate(x_obj)
kde_g = gaussian_kde(g['x']).evaluate(x_obj)
#define our evaluation measure for sampling a new point
eval_measure = kde_g/kde_l
if i%10==0:
plt.figure()
plt.subplot(2,2,1)
plt.plot(x_obj,y_obj,label='Objective')
plt.plot(x_obs,y_obs,'*',label='Observations')
plt.plot([-5,5],[y_star,y_star],'k')
plt.subplot(2,2,2)
plt.plot(x_obj,kde_l)
plt.subplot(2,2,3)
plt.plot(x_obj,kde_g)
plt.subplot(2,2,4)
plt.semilogy(x_obj,eval_measure)
plt.draw()
#find point to evaluate and add the new observation
best_search = x_obj[np.argmin(eval_measure)]
x_obs = np.append(x_obs,[best_search])
y_obs = np.append(y_obs,[measure(np.asarray([best_search]))])
plt.show()
I suspect this happens because we keep sampling where we are most certain, thus making l(x) more and more narrow around this point, which doesn't change where we sample at all. So where is my understanding lacking?
So, I am still learning about TPE as well. But here's are the two problems in this code:
This code will only evaluate a few unique point. Because the best location is calculated based on the best recommended by the kernel density functions but there is no way for the code to do exploration of the search space. For example, what acquisition functions do.
Because this code is simply appending new observations to the list of x and y. It adds a whole lot of duplicates. The duplicates lead to a skewed set of observations and that leads to a very weird split and you can easily see that in the later plots. The eval_measure starts as something similar to the objective function but diverges later on.
If you remove the duplicates in x_obs and y_obs you can remove the problem no. 2. However, the first problem can only be removed through the addition of some way of exploring the search space.

is seaborn confidence interval computed correctly?

First, I must admit that my statistics knowledge is rusty at best: even when it was shining new, it's not a discipline I particularly liked, which means I had a hard time making sense of it.
Nevertheless, I took a look at how the barplot graphs were calculating error bars, and was surprised to find a "confidence interval" (CI) used instead of (the more common) standard deviation. Researching more CI led me to this wikipedia article which seems to say that, basically, a CI is computed as:
Or, in pseudocode:
def ci_wp(a):
"""calculate confidence interval using Wikipedia's formula"""
m = np.mean(a)
s = 1.96*np.std(a)/np.sqrt(len(a))
return m - s, m + s
But what we find in seaborn/utils.py is:
def ci(a, which=95, axis=None):
"""Return a percentile range from an array of values."""
p = 50 - which / 2, 50 + which / 2
return percentiles(a, p, axis)
Now maybe I'm missing this completely, but this seems just like a completely different calculation than the one proposed by Wikipedia. Can anyone explain this discrepancy?
To give another example, from comments, why do we get so different results between:
>>> sb.utils.ci(np.arange(100))
array([ 2.475, 96.525])
>>> ci_wp(np.arange(100))
[43.842250270646467,55.157749729353533]
And to compare with other statistical tools:
def ci_std(a):
"""calculate margin of error using standard deviation"""
m = np.mean(a)
s = np.std(a)
return m-s, m+s
def ci_sem(a):
"""calculate margin of error using standard error of the mean"""
m = np.mean(a)
s = sp.stats.sem(a)
return m-s, m+s
Which gives us:
>>> ci_sem(np.arange(100))
(46.598850802411796, 52.401149197588204)
>>> ci_std(np.arange(100))
(20.633929952277882, 78.366070047722118)
Or with a random sample:
rng = np.random.RandomState(10)
a = rng.normal(size=100)
print sb.utils.ci(a)
print ci_wp(a)
print ci_sem(a)
print ci_std(a)
... which yields:
[-1.9667006 2.19502303]
(-0.1101230745774124, 0.26895640045116026)
(-0.017774461397903049, 0.17660778727165088)
(-0.88762281417683186, 1.0464561400505796)
Why are Seaborn's numbers so radically different from the other results?
Your calculation using this Wikipedia formula is completely right. Seaborn just uses another method: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping_(statistics). It's well described by Dragicevic [1]:
[It] consists of generating many alternative datasets from the experimental data by randomly drawing observations with replacement. The variability across these datasets is assumed to approximate sampling error and is used to compute so-called bootstrap confidence intervals. [...] It is very versatile and works for many kinds of distributions.
In the Seaborn's source code, a barplot uses estimate_statistic which bootstraps the data then computes the confidence interval on it:
>>> sb.utils.ci(sb.algorithms.bootstrap(np.arange(100)))
array([43.91, 55.21025])
The result is consistent with your calculation.
[1] Dragicevic, P. (2016). Fair statistical communication in HCI. In Modern Statistical Methods for HCI (pp. 291-330). Springer, Cham.
You need to check the code of percentiles. The seaborn ci code you posted simply computes the percentile limits. This interval has a defined mean of 50 (median) and a default range of 95% confidence interval. The actual mean, the standard deviation, etc. will appear in the percentiles routine.

extracting phase information using numpy fft

I am trying to use a fast fourier transform to extract the phase shift of a single sinusoidal function. I know that on paper, If we denote the transform of our function as T, then we have the following relations:
However, I am finding that while I am able to accurately capture the frequency of my cosine wave, the phase is inaccurate unless I sample at an extremely high rate. For example:
import numpy as np
import pylab as pl
num_t = 100000
t = np.linspace(0,1,num_t)
dt = 1.0/num_t
w = 2.0*np.pi*30.0
phase = np.pi/2.0
amp = np.fft.rfft(np.cos(w*t+phase))
freqs = np.fft.rfftfreq(t.shape[-1],dt)
print (np.arctan2(amp.imag,amp.real))[30]
pl.subplot(211)
pl.plot(freqs[:60],np.sqrt(amp.real**2+amp.imag**2)[:60])
pl.subplot(212)
pl.plot(freqs[:60],(np.arctan2(amp.imag,amp.real))[:60])
pl.show()
Using num=100000 points I get a phase of 1.57173880459.
Using num=10000 points I get a phase of 1.58022110476.
Using num=1000 points I get a phase of 1.6650441064.
What's going wrong? Even with 1000 points I have 33 points per cycle, which should be enough to resolve it. Is there maybe a way to increase the number of computed frequency points? Is there any way to do this with a "low" number of points?
EDIT: from further experimentation it seems that I need ~1000 points per cycle in order to accurately extract a phase. Why?!
EDIT 2: further experiments indicate that accuracy is related to number of points per cycle, rather than absolute numbers. Increasing the number of sampled points per cycle makes phase more accurate, but if both signal frequency and number of sampled points are increased by the same factor, the accuracy stays the same.
Your points are not distributed equally over the interval, you have the point at the end doubled: 0 is the same point as 1. This gets less important the more points you take, obviusly, but still gives some error. You can avoid it totally, the linspace has a flag for this. Also it has a flag to return you the dt directly along with the array.
Do
t, dt = np.linspace(0, 1, num_t, endpoint=False, retstep=True)
instead of
t = np.linspace(0,1,num_t)
dt = 1.0/num_t
then it works :)
The phase value in the result bin of an unrotated FFT is only correct if the input signal is exactly integer periodic within the FFT length. Your test signal is not, thus the FFT measures something partially related to the phase difference of the signal discontinuity between end-points of the test sinusoid. A higher sample rate will create a slightly different last end-point from the sinusoid, and thus a possibly smaller discontinuity.
If you want to decrease this FFT phase measurement error, create your test signal so the your test phase is referenced to the exact center (sample N/2) of the test vector (not the 1st sample), and then do an fftshift operation (rotate by N/2) so that there will be no signal discontinuity between the 1st and last point in your resulting FFT input vector of length N.
This snippet of code might help:
def reconstruct_ifft(data):
"""
In this function, we take in a signal, find its fft, retain the dominant modes and reconstruct the signal from that
Parameters
----------
data : Signal to do the fft, ifft
Returns
-------
reconstructed_signal : the reconstructed signal
"""
N = data.size
yf = rfft(data)
amp_yf = np.abs(yf) #amplitude
yf = yf*(amp_yf>(THRESHOLD*np.amax(amp_yf)))
reconstructed_signal = irfft(yf)
return reconstructed_signal
The 0.01 is the threshold of amplitudes of the fft that you would want to retain. Making the THRESHOLD greater(more than 1 does not make any sense), will give
fewer modes and cause higher rms error but ensures higher frequency selectivity.
(Please adjust the TABS for the python code)

Truncated multivariate normal in SciPy?

I'm trying to automate a process that at some point needs to draw samples from a truncated multivariate normal. That is, it's a normal multivariate normal distribution (i.e. Gaussian) but the variables are constrained to a cuboid. My given inputs are the mean and covariance of the full multivariate normal but I need samples in my box.
Up to now, I'd just been rejecting samples outside the box and resampling as necessary, but I'm starting to find that my process sometimes gives me (a) large covariances and (b) means that are close to the edges. These two events conspire against the speed of my system.
So what I'd like to do is sample the distribution correctly in the first place. Googling led only to this discussion or the truncnorm distribution in scipy.stats. The former is inconclusive and the latter seems to be for one variable. Is there any native multivariate truncated normal? And is it going to be any better than rejecting samples, or should I do something smarter?
I'm going to start working on my own solution, which would be to rotate the untruncated Gaussian to it's principal axes (with an SVD decomposition or something), use a product of truncated Gaussians to sample the distribution, then rotate that sample back, and reject/resample as necessary. If the truncated sampling is more efficient, I think this should sample the desired distribution faster.
So, according to the Wikipedia article, sampling a multivariate truncated normal distribution (MTND) is more difficult. I ended up taking a relatively easy way out and using an MCMC sampler to relax an initial guess towards the MTND as follows.
I used emcee to do the MCMC work. I find this package phenomenally easy-to-use. It only requires a function that returns the log-probability of the desired distribution. So I defined this function
from numpy.linalg import inv
def lnprob_trunc_norm(x, mean, bounds, C):
if np.any(x < bounds[:,0]) or np.any(x > bounds[:,1]):
return -np.inf
else:
return -0.5*(x-mean).dot(inv(C)).dot(x-mean)
Here, C is the covariance matrix of the multivariate normal. Then, you can run something like
S = emcee.EnsembleSampler(Nwalkers, Ndim, lnprob_trunc_norm, args = (mean, bounds, C))
pos, prob, state = S.run_mcmc(pos, Nsteps)
for given mean, bounds and C. You need an initial guess for the walkers' positions pos, which could be a ball around the mean,
pos = emcee.utils.sample_ball(mean, np.sqrt(np.diag(C)), size=Nwalkers)
or sampled from an untruncated multivariate normal,
pos = numpy.random.multivariate_normal(mean, C, size=Nwalkers)
and so on. I personally do several thousand steps of sample discarding first, because it's fast, then force the remaining outliers back within the bounds, then run the MCMC sampling.
The number of steps for convergence is up to you.
Note also that emcee easily supports basic parallelization by adding the argument threads=Nthreads to the EnsembleSampler initialization. So you can make this blazing fast.
I have reimplemented an algorithm which does not depend on MCMC but creates independent and identically distributed (iid) samples from the truncated multivariate normal distribution. Having iid samples can be very useful! I used to also use emcee as described in the answer by Warrick, but for convergence the number of samples needed exploded in higher dimensions, making it impractical for my use case.
The algorithm was introduced by Botev (2016) and uses an accept-reject algorithm based on minimax exponential tilting. It was originally implemented in MATLAB but reimplementing it for Python increased the performance significantly compared to running it using the MATLAB engine in Python. It also works well and is fast at higher dimensions.
The code is available at: https://github.com/brunzema/truncated-mvn-sampler.
An Example:
d = 10 # dimensions
# random mu and cov
mu = np.random.rand(d)
cov = 0.5 - np.random.rand(d ** 2).reshape((d, d))
cov = np.triu(cov)
cov += cov.T - np.diag(cov.diagonal())
cov = np.dot(cov, cov)
# constraints
lb = np.zeros_like(mu) - 1
ub = np.ones_like(mu) * np.inf
# create truncated normal and sample from it
n_samples = 100000
tmvn = TruncatedMVN(mu, cov, lb, ub)
samples = tmvn.sample(n_samples)
Plotting the first dimension results in:
Reference:
Botev, Z. I., (2016), The normal law under linear restrictions: simulation and estimation via minimax tilting, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 79, issue 1, p. 125-148
Simulating truncated multivariate normal can be tricky and usually involves some conditional sampling by MCMC.
My short answer is, you can use my code (https://github.com/ralphma1203/trun_mvnt)!!! It implements the Gibbs sampler algorithm from , which can handle general linear constraints in the form of , even when you have non-full rank D and more constraints than the dimensionality.
import numpy as np
from trun_mvnt import rtmvn, rtmvt
########## Traditional problem, probably what you need... ##########
##### lower < X < upper #####
# So D = identity matrix
D = np.diag(np.ones(4))
lower = np.array([-1,-2,-3,-4])
upper = -lower
Mean = np.zeros(4)
Sigma = np.diag([1,2,3,4])
n = 10 # want 500 final sample
burn = 100 # burn-in first 100 iterates
thin = 1 # thinning for Gibbs
random_sample = rtmvn(n, Mean, Sigma, D, lower, upper, burn, thin)
# Numpy array n-by-p as result!
random_sample
########## Non-full rank problem (more constraints than dimension) ##########
Mean = np.array([0,0])
Sigma = np.array([1, 0.5, 0.5, 1]).reshape((2,2)) # bivariate normal
D = np.array([1,0,0,1,1,-1]).reshape((3,2)) # non-full rank problem
lower = np.array([-2,-1,-2])
upper = np.array([2,3,5])
n = 500 # want 500 final sample
burn = 100 # burn-in first 100 iterates
thin = 1 # thinning for Gibbs
random_sample = rtmvn(n, Mean, Sigma, D, lower, upper, burn, thin) # Numpy array n-by-p as result!
A little late I guess but for the record, you could use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. A module in Matlab exists named HMC exact. It shouldn't be too difficult to translate in Py.

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