Simulating correlated multivariate data - python

I'm trying to generate synthetic realizations from historical hurricane data. A hurricane is parameterized in my problem by a set of descriptors (i.e. storm size, storm intensity, storm speed, and storm heading - all referenced to the values at the time the hurricane crosses some shoreline). The realizations will be used to make probabilistic forecasts of hurricane-generated flooding. The assumption is that the historical hurricane data comes from some underlying multivariate distribution. The idea is to draw additional samples from this underlying distribution (preserving moments, correlation, physical bounds such as positive storm size, etc).
I've implemented a nearest neighbor Gaussian dispersion method modified from a technique developed by Taylor and Thompson - published in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 1986. I'd like to see if there are better ways to do this.
Data sample (Gulf of Mexico hurricanes 1940-2005):
def TT_alg(data_list, sample_size, num_neighbors=5, metric=2):
dummy_list = []
dimension = len(data_list[0])
# transform the data to the interval [0,1]
aa = numpy.array([(max([row[i] for row in data_list]) - min([row[i] for row in data_list])) for i in range(dimension)])
bb = numpy.array([min([row[j] for row in data_list]) for j in range(dimension)])
data_array = numpy.array(data_list)
data_array_normed = (data_array - bb) / aa
# setup nearest neighbor tree
tree = scipy.spatial.KDTree(data_array_normed)
# perform nearest neighbor random walk
for ijk in range(sample_size):
sample = random.choice(data_array_normed)
kNN = tree.query(sample, k=num_neighbors, p=metric)
x_mu = numpy.array([numpy.average([data_array_normed[i][j] for i in kNN[1]]) for j in range(dimension)])
x_si = numpy.array([numpy.std([data_array_normed[i][j] for i in kNN[1]]) for j in range(dimension)])
s_gs = [numpy.random.normal(mu, si) for mu, si in zip(x_mu, x_si)]
dummy_list.append(s_gs)
dummy_array = numpy.array(dummy_list)
# go back to original scale
data_array_unnormed = (dummy_array * aa) + bb
return data_array_unnormed.tolist()
Example for neighborhood_size=5 and distance_metric=Euclidean.

Your data are almost certainly not gaussian, the speed, intensity, and size must all be positive and size and intensity are clearly skewed. A log-normal distribution is plausible. I'd recommend log-transforming your data before attempting distributional fits.
One way to try to capture the correlation structure (which is definitely present in your posted data!) would be to estimate the mean M and variance/covariance matrix V of the log-transformed data. Then decompose the variance/covariance matrix using Cholesky decomposition to get V = transpose(C) C. If Z is a vector of independent normals, then X = M + transpose(C) Z will be a vector of correlated normals with the desired mean and variance/covariance structure. Exponentiating the elements of X will yield your simulated results. The results should avoid artifacts such as the negative storm sizes visible in your last graph. See this paper for more details.

Related

Implementation details of K-means++ without sklearn

I am doing K-means using MINST dataset. However, I found difficulties in the implementation on initialization and some further steps.
For the initialization, I have to first pick one random data point to the first centroid. Then for the remaining centroids, we also pick data points randomly, but from a weighted probability distribution, until all the centroids are chosen
I am sticking in this step, how can I apply this distribution to choose? I mean, how to implement it? for the D_{k-1}(x), can I just use np.linalg.norm to compile and square it?
For my implementation, I now just initialized the first element
self.centroids = np.zeros((self.num_clusters, input_x.shape[1]))
ran_num = np.random.choice(input_x.shape[0])
self.centroids[0] = input_x[ran_num]
for k in range(1, self.num_clusters):
for the next step, do I need to find the next centroid by obtaining the largest distance between the previous centroid and all sample points?
You need to create a distribution where the probability to select an observation is the (normalized) distance between the observation and its closest cluster. Thus, to select a new cluster center, there is a high probability to select observations that are far from all already existing cluster centers. Similarly, there is a low probability to select observations that are close to already existing cluster centers.
This would look like this:
centers = []
centers.append(X[np.random.randint(X.shape[0])]) # inital center = one random sample
distance = np.full(X.shape[0], np.inf)
for j in range(1,self.n_clusters):
distance = np.minimum(np.linalg.norm(X - centers[-1], axis=1), distance)
p = np.square(distance) / np.sum(np.square(distance)) # probability vector [p1,...,pn]
sample = np.random.choice(X.shape[0], p = p)
centers.append(X[sample])

Is k-means++ meant to be perfect every time? What other initialization strategies can yield the best k-means?

I've implemented a k-means algorithm and performance is highly dependent on how centroids were initialized. I'm finding random uniform initialization to give a good k-means about 5% of the time, whereas with k-means++, it's closer to 50%. Why is the yield for good k-means so low? I should disclaim I've only used a handful of data sets and my good/bad rates are indicative of only those, not broadly.
Here's an example using k-means++ where the end result was not great. The Dunn Index of this clustering is 0.16.
And an example where it worked perfectly with a Dunn Index of 0.67.
I was maybe under the naive impression k-means++ produced a good k-means every time. Is there perhaps something wrong with my code?
def initialize_centroids(points, k):
"""
Parameters:
points : a list of Points.
k : how many centroids to place.
Returns:
A list of centroids.
"""
clusters = []
clusters.append(choice(points)) # first centroid is random point
for _ in range(k - 1): # for other centroids
distances = []
for p in points:
d = inf
for c in clusters: # find the minimal distance between p and c
d = min(d, distance(p, c))
distances.append(d)
# find maximum distance index from minimal distances
clusters.append(points[distances.index(max(distances))])
return clusters
This is adapted from the algorithm as found on Wikipedia:
Choose one center uniformly at random from among the data points.
For each data point x, compute D(x), the distance between x and the nearest center that has already been chosen.
Choose one new data point at random as a new center, using a weighted probability distribution where a point x is chosen with probability proportional to D(x)2.
Repeat Steps 2 and 3 until k centers have been chosen.
Now that the initial centers have been chosen, proceed using standard k-means clustering.
The difference is the centroids are chosen such that it is the furthest distance, not a probability to choose between furthest distances.
My intention is to compare the Dunn Index over different values of k, and empirically the Dunn Index being higher means better clustering. I can't collect (good) data if half of the time it doesn't work, so my results are skewed due to the faultiness of k-means++ or my implementation thereof.
What other initialization strategies can be employed to get a more consistent result?

scikit-learn: Finding the features that contribute to each KMeans cluster

Say you have 10 features you are using to create 3 clusters. Is there a way to see the level of contribution each of the features have for each of the clusters?
What I want to be able to say is that for cluster k1, features 1,4,6 were the primary features where as cluster k2's primary features were 2,5,7.
This is the basic setup of what I am using:
k_means = KMeans(init='k-means++', n_clusters=3, n_init=10)
k_means.fit(data_features)
k_means_labels = k_means.labels_
You can use
Principle Component Analysis (PCA)
PCA can be done by eigenvalue decomposition of a data covariance (or correlation) matrix or singular value decomposition of a data matrix, usually after mean centering (and normalizing or using Z-scores) the data matrix for each attribute. The results of a PCA are usually discussed in terms of component scores, sometimes called factor scores (the transformed variable values corresponding to a particular data point), and loadings (the weight by which each standardized original variable should be multiplied to get the component score).
Some essential points:
the eigenvalues reflect the portion of variance explained by the corresponding component. Say, we have 4 features with eigenvalues 1, 4, 1, 2. These are the variances explained by the corresp. vectors. The second value belongs to the first principle component as it explains 50 % off the overall variance and the last value belongs to the second principle component explaining 25 % of the overall variance.
the eigenvectors are the component's linear combinations. The give the weights for the features so that you can know, which feature as high/low impact.
use PCA based on correlation matrix instead of empiric covariance matrix, if the eigenvalues strongly differ (magnitudes).
Sample approach
do PCA on entire dataset (that's what the function below does)
take matrix with observations and features
center it to its average (average of feature values among all observations)
compute empiric covariance matrix (e.g. np.cov) or correlation (see above)
perform decomposition
sort eigenvalues and eigenvectors by eigenvalues to get components with highest impact
use components on original data
examine the clusters in the transformed dataset. By checking their location on each component you can derive the features with high and low impact on distribution/variance
Sample function
You need to import numpy as np and scipy as sp. It uses sp.linalg.eigh for decomposition. You might want to check also the scikit decomposition module.
PCA is performed on a data matrix with observations (objects) in rows and features in columns.
def dim_red_pca(X, d=0, corr=False):
r"""
Performs principal component analysis.
Parameters
----------
X : array, (n, d)
Original observations (n observations, d features)
d : int
Number of principal components (default is ``0`` => all components).
corr : bool
If true, the PCA is performed based on the correlation matrix.
Notes
-----
Always all eigenvalues and eigenvectors are returned,
independently of the desired number of components ``d``.
Returns
-------
Xred : array, (n, m or d)
Reduced data matrix
e_values : array, (m)
The eigenvalues, sorted in descending manner.
e_vectors : array, (n, m)
The eigenvectors, sorted corresponding to eigenvalues.
"""
# Center to average
X_ = X-X.mean(0)
# Compute correlation / covarianz matrix
if corr:
CO = np.corrcoef(X_.T)
else:
CO = np.cov(X_.T)
# Compute eigenvalues and eigenvectors
e_values, e_vectors = sp.linalg.eigh(CO)
# Sort the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors descending
idx = np.argsort(e_values)[::-1]
e_vectors = e_vectors[:, idx]
e_values = e_values[idx]
# Get the number of desired dimensions
d_e_vecs = e_vectors
if d > 0:
d_e_vecs = e_vectors[:, :d]
else:
d = None
# Map principal components to original data
LIN = np.dot(d_e_vecs, np.dot(d_e_vecs.T, X_.T)).T
return LIN[:, :d], e_values, e_vectors
Sample usage
Here's a sample script, which makes use of the given function and uses scipy.cluster.vq.kmeans2 for clustering. Note that the results vary with each run. This is due to the starting clusters a initialized randomly.
import numpy as np
import scipy as sp
from scipy.cluster.vq import kmeans2
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
SN = np.array([ [1.325, 1.000, 1.825, 1.750],
[2.000, 1.250, 2.675, 1.750],
[3.000, 3.250, 3.000, 2.750],
[1.075, 2.000, 1.675, 1.000],
[3.425, 2.000, 3.250, 2.750],
[1.900, 2.000, 2.400, 2.750],
[3.325, 2.500, 3.000, 2.000],
[3.000, 2.750, 3.075, 2.250],
[2.075, 1.250, 2.000, 2.250],
[2.500, 3.250, 3.075, 2.250],
[1.675, 2.500, 2.675, 1.250],
[2.075, 1.750, 1.900, 1.500],
[1.750, 2.000, 1.150, 1.250],
[2.500, 2.250, 2.425, 2.500],
[1.675, 2.750, 2.000, 1.250],
[3.675, 3.000, 3.325, 2.500],
[1.250, 1.500, 1.150, 1.000]], dtype=float)
clust,labels_ = kmeans2(SN,3) # cluster with 3 random initial clusters
# PCA on orig. dataset
# Xred will have only 2 columns, the first two princ. comps.
# evals has shape (4,) and evecs (4,4). We need all eigenvalues
# to determine the portion of variance
Xred, evals, evecs = dim_red_pca(SN,2)
xlab = '1. PC - ExpVar = {:.2f} %'.format(evals[0]/sum(evals)*100) # determine variance portion
ylab = '2. PC - ExpVar = {:.2f} %'.format(evals[1]/sum(evals)*100)
# plot the clusters, each set separately
plt.figure()
ax = plt.gca()
scatterHs = []
clr = ['r', 'b', 'k']
for cluster in set(labels_):
scatterHs.append(ax.scatter(Xred[labels_ == cluster, 0], Xred[labels_ == cluster, 1],
color=clr[cluster], label='Cluster {}'.format(cluster)))
plt.legend(handles=scatterHs,loc=4)
plt.setp(ax, title='First and Second Principle Components', xlabel=xlab, ylabel=ylab)
# plot also the eigenvectors for deriving the influence of each feature
fig, ax = plt.subplots(2,1)
ax[0].bar([1, 2, 3, 4],evecs[0])
plt.setp(ax[0], title="First and Second Component's Eigenvectors ", ylabel='Weight')
ax[1].bar([1, 2, 3, 4],evecs[1])
plt.setp(ax[1], xlabel='Features', ylabel='Weight')
Output
The eigenvectors show the weighting of each feature for the component
Short Interpretation
Let's just have a look at cluster zero, the red one. We'll be mostly interested in the first component as it explains about 3/4 of the distribution. The red cluster is in the upper area of the first component. All observations yield rather high values. What does it mean? Now looking at the linear combination of the first component we see on first sight, that the second feature is rather unimportant (for this component). The first and fourth feature are the highest weighted and the third one has a negative score. This means, that - as all red vertices have a rather high score on the first PC - these vertices will have high values in the first and last feature, while at the same time they have low scores concerning the third feature.
Concerning the second feature we can have a look at the second PC. However, note that the overall impact is far smaller as this component explains only roughly 16 % of the variance compared to the ~74 % of the first PC.
You can do it this way:
>>> import numpy as np
>>> import sklearn.cluster as cl
>>> data = np.array([99,1,2,103,44,63,56,110,89,7,12,37])
>>> k_means = cl.KMeans(init='k-means++', n_clusters=3, n_init=10)
>>> k_means.fit(data[:,np.newaxis]) # [:,np.newaxis] converts data from 1D to 2D
>>> k_means_labels = k_means.labels_
>>> k1,k2,k3 = [data[np.where(k_means_labels==i)] for i in range(3)] # range(3) because 3 clusters
>>> k1
array([44, 63, 56, 37])
>>> k2
array([ 99, 103, 110, 89])
>>> k3
array([ 1, 2, 7, 12])
Try this,
estimator=KMeans()
estimator.fit(X)
res=estimator.__dict__
print res['cluster_centers_']
You will get matrix of cluster and feature_weights, from that you can conclude, the feature having more weight takes major part to contribute cluster.
I assume that by saying "a primary feature" you mean - had the biggest impact on the class. A nice exploration you can do is look at the coordinates of the cluster centers . For example, plot for each feature it's coordinate in each of the K centers.
Of course that any features that are on large scale will have much larger effect on the distance between the observations, so make sure your data is well scaled before performing any analysis.
a method I came up with is calculating the standard deviation of each feature in relation to the distribution - basically how is the data is spread across each feature
the lesser the spread, the better the feature of each cluster basically:
1 - (std(x) / (max(x) - min(x))
I wrote an article and a class to maintain it
https://github.com/GuyLou/python-stuff/blob/main/pluster.py
https://medium.com/#guylouzon/creating-clustering-feature-importance-c97ba8133c37
It might be difficult to talk about feature importance separately for each cluster. Rather, it could be better to talk globally about which features are most important for separating different clusters.
For this goal, a very simple method is described as follow. Note that the Euclidean distance between two cluster centers is a sum of square difference between individual features. We can then just use the square difference as the weight for each feature.

Kalman Filter module to correct ARIMA forecast result

I am currently writing a script to do a wind speed forecast using ARIMA and I have pretty nice results for a very short term forecast.
I was wondering which of the Kalman Filter function in python is the one that would allow me to have lower root mean square error of my forecast.
I am using only wind speed as input data and I want to see some improvements in my forecast errors.
Can you give me some guidelines on which module to use, functions and be a little bit specific on why I can't use others.
Do I have to use pykalman (kalman smoother)?Why?How?
Or tsa.kalmanf.kalmanfilter (In this module I am seeing two different types of Kalman Filter: one with the k in capital and there is no comments on the function and the other in non capital letters)
Any help would be great!
I would use this numpy implementation on the scipy wiki:
# Kalman filter example demo in Python
# A Python implementation of the example given in pages 11-15 of "An
# Introduction to the Kalman Filter" by Greg Welch and Gary Bishop,
# University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Computer
# Science, TR 95-041,
# http://www.cs.unc.edu/~welch/kalman/kalmanIntro.html
# by Andrew D. Straw
import numpy
import pylab
# intial parameters
n_iter = 50
sz = (n_iter,) # size of array
x = -0.37727 # truth value (typo in example at top of p. 13 calls this z)
z = numpy.random.normal(x,0.1,size=sz) # observations (normal about x, sigma=0.1)
Q = 1e-5 # process variance
# allocate space for arrays
xhat=numpy.zeros(sz) # a posteri estimate of x
P=numpy.zeros(sz) # a posteri error estimate
xhatminus=numpy.zeros(sz) # a priori estimate of x
Pminus=numpy.zeros(sz) # a priori error estimate
K=numpy.zeros(sz) # gain or blending factor
R = 0.1**2 # estimate of measurement variance, change to see effect
# intial guesses
xhat[0] = 0.0
P[0] = 1.0
for k in range(1,n_iter):
# time update
xhatminus[k] = xhat[k-1]
Pminus[k] = P[k-1]+Q
# measurement update
K[k] = Pminus[k]/( Pminus[k]+R )
xhat[k] = xhatminus[k]+K[k]*(z[k]-xhatminus[k])
P[k] = (1-K[k])*Pminus[k]
pylab.figure()
pylab.plot(z,'k+',label='noisy measurements')
pylab.plot(xhat,'b-',label='a posteri estimate')
pylab.axhline(x,color='g',label='truth value')
pylab.legend()
pylab.xlabel('Iteration')
pylab.ylabel('Voltage')
pylab.figure()
valid_iter = range(1,n_iter) # Pminus not valid at step 0
pylab.plot(valid_iter,Pminus[valid_iter],label='a priori error estimate')
pylab.xlabel('Iteration')
pylab.ylabel('$(Voltage)^2$')
pylab.setp(pylab.gca(),'ylim',[0,.01])
pylab.show()
A common misconception regarding the filter is that noise need be distributed normally. This is not required.
Hope this helps and if you require further explanation, do leave a comment.

Truncated multivariate normal in SciPy?

I'm trying to automate a process that at some point needs to draw samples from a truncated multivariate normal. That is, it's a normal multivariate normal distribution (i.e. Gaussian) but the variables are constrained to a cuboid. My given inputs are the mean and covariance of the full multivariate normal but I need samples in my box.
Up to now, I'd just been rejecting samples outside the box and resampling as necessary, but I'm starting to find that my process sometimes gives me (a) large covariances and (b) means that are close to the edges. These two events conspire against the speed of my system.
So what I'd like to do is sample the distribution correctly in the first place. Googling led only to this discussion or the truncnorm distribution in scipy.stats. The former is inconclusive and the latter seems to be for one variable. Is there any native multivariate truncated normal? And is it going to be any better than rejecting samples, or should I do something smarter?
I'm going to start working on my own solution, which would be to rotate the untruncated Gaussian to it's principal axes (with an SVD decomposition or something), use a product of truncated Gaussians to sample the distribution, then rotate that sample back, and reject/resample as necessary. If the truncated sampling is more efficient, I think this should sample the desired distribution faster.
So, according to the Wikipedia article, sampling a multivariate truncated normal distribution (MTND) is more difficult. I ended up taking a relatively easy way out and using an MCMC sampler to relax an initial guess towards the MTND as follows.
I used emcee to do the MCMC work. I find this package phenomenally easy-to-use. It only requires a function that returns the log-probability of the desired distribution. So I defined this function
from numpy.linalg import inv
def lnprob_trunc_norm(x, mean, bounds, C):
if np.any(x < bounds[:,0]) or np.any(x > bounds[:,1]):
return -np.inf
else:
return -0.5*(x-mean).dot(inv(C)).dot(x-mean)
Here, C is the covariance matrix of the multivariate normal. Then, you can run something like
S = emcee.EnsembleSampler(Nwalkers, Ndim, lnprob_trunc_norm, args = (mean, bounds, C))
pos, prob, state = S.run_mcmc(pos, Nsteps)
for given mean, bounds and C. You need an initial guess for the walkers' positions pos, which could be a ball around the mean,
pos = emcee.utils.sample_ball(mean, np.sqrt(np.diag(C)), size=Nwalkers)
or sampled from an untruncated multivariate normal,
pos = numpy.random.multivariate_normal(mean, C, size=Nwalkers)
and so on. I personally do several thousand steps of sample discarding first, because it's fast, then force the remaining outliers back within the bounds, then run the MCMC sampling.
The number of steps for convergence is up to you.
Note also that emcee easily supports basic parallelization by adding the argument threads=Nthreads to the EnsembleSampler initialization. So you can make this blazing fast.
I have reimplemented an algorithm which does not depend on MCMC but creates independent and identically distributed (iid) samples from the truncated multivariate normal distribution. Having iid samples can be very useful! I used to also use emcee as described in the answer by Warrick, but for convergence the number of samples needed exploded in higher dimensions, making it impractical for my use case.
The algorithm was introduced by Botev (2016) and uses an accept-reject algorithm based on minimax exponential tilting. It was originally implemented in MATLAB but reimplementing it for Python increased the performance significantly compared to running it using the MATLAB engine in Python. It also works well and is fast at higher dimensions.
The code is available at: https://github.com/brunzema/truncated-mvn-sampler.
An Example:
d = 10 # dimensions
# random mu and cov
mu = np.random.rand(d)
cov = 0.5 - np.random.rand(d ** 2).reshape((d, d))
cov = np.triu(cov)
cov += cov.T - np.diag(cov.diagonal())
cov = np.dot(cov, cov)
# constraints
lb = np.zeros_like(mu) - 1
ub = np.ones_like(mu) * np.inf
# create truncated normal and sample from it
n_samples = 100000
tmvn = TruncatedMVN(mu, cov, lb, ub)
samples = tmvn.sample(n_samples)
Plotting the first dimension results in:
Reference:
Botev, Z. I., (2016), The normal law under linear restrictions: simulation and estimation via minimax tilting, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 79, issue 1, p. 125-148
Simulating truncated multivariate normal can be tricky and usually involves some conditional sampling by MCMC.
My short answer is, you can use my code (https://github.com/ralphma1203/trun_mvnt)!!! It implements the Gibbs sampler algorithm from , which can handle general linear constraints in the form of , even when you have non-full rank D and more constraints than the dimensionality.
import numpy as np
from trun_mvnt import rtmvn, rtmvt
########## Traditional problem, probably what you need... ##########
##### lower < X < upper #####
# So D = identity matrix
D = np.diag(np.ones(4))
lower = np.array([-1,-2,-3,-4])
upper = -lower
Mean = np.zeros(4)
Sigma = np.diag([1,2,3,4])
n = 10 # want 500 final sample
burn = 100 # burn-in first 100 iterates
thin = 1 # thinning for Gibbs
random_sample = rtmvn(n, Mean, Sigma, D, lower, upper, burn, thin)
# Numpy array n-by-p as result!
random_sample
########## Non-full rank problem (more constraints than dimension) ##########
Mean = np.array([0,0])
Sigma = np.array([1, 0.5, 0.5, 1]).reshape((2,2)) # bivariate normal
D = np.array([1,0,0,1,1,-1]).reshape((3,2)) # non-full rank problem
lower = np.array([-2,-1,-2])
upper = np.array([2,3,5])
n = 500 # want 500 final sample
burn = 100 # burn-in first 100 iterates
thin = 1 # thinning for Gibbs
random_sample = rtmvn(n, Mean, Sigma, D, lower, upper, burn, thin) # Numpy array n-by-p as result!
A little late I guess but for the record, you could use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. A module in Matlab exists named HMC exact. It shouldn't be too difficult to translate in Py.

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